Moores Law to die at 18 nm, analysts predict

Intel logoiSuppli most certainly will initiate yet another discussion whether Moores Law, a forecast made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double every 18 24 months, can be upheld in the future. The market research firm believes chip makers will crash into financial barriers as soon as the 20 nm mark is passed.

We have heard it before and we will hear it in the future again. The rules of Moores Law, one of the most significant guidelines for chip makers and semiconductor innovation, cannot be sustained anymore. But we notice that the frequency of this prediction is increasing and the reasoning behind such claims is shifting. It is not so much that the transistor count can be increased through shrinking structures, it is the production cost of smaller transistors that may break Moores Laws neck.

The usable limit for semiconductor process technology will be reached when chip process geometries shrink to be smaller than 20 nm, to 18 nm nodes, said Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst, semiconductor manufacturing, for iSuppli. At those nodes, the industry will start getting to the point where semiconductor manufacturing tools are too expensive to depreciate with volume production, i.e., their costs will be so high, that the value of their lifetime productivity can never justify it.

Gordon Moore

In the end, iSuppli believes that Moores Law will lose the perception of the ultimate chipmakers guideline it has today. By 2014, Moores Law will no longer drive volume semiconductor production, iSuppli said.

We are pretty sure that Intel and other chip makers will deny that Moores Laws death can be predicted, especially since Gordon Moore said back in 2007 that his prediction can be upheld for at least another 10 years. Also, Toshiba yesterday unveiled plans for 16 nm structures.

Of course, the question is how companies can mass-produce such small structures and whether they can afford it. Upcoming 32 nm production facilities already cost more than $4 billion and only make sense for chip makers with revenues of more than $10 billion, at current financial depreciation models. The dramatic increase in cost drives joint-ventures between chip makers and allows only companies such as Intel and Samsung as well as contract chip makers such as Globalfoundries, Chartered or TSMC to operate their own fabs.

Eventually, Moores Law will run into the limits of nature. The question is when that will be.

Source: TG Daily

Tags: CPUs, Intel

Add comment

Your name:
Sign in with:
Your comment:

Enter code:

E-mail (not required)
E-mail will not be disclosed to the third party

Last news

Galaxy Note10 really is built around a 6.7-inch display
You may still be able to download your content
Facebook, Messenger and Instagram are all going away
Minimize apps to a floating, always-on-top bubble
Japan Display has been providing LCDs for the iPhone XR, the only LCD model in Apples 2018 line-up
The 2001 operating system has reached its lowest share level
The entire TSMC 5nm design infrastructure is available now from TSMC
The smartphone uses a Snapdragon 660 processor running Android 9 Pie
The Samsung Galaxy A5 (2017) Review
The evolution of the successful smartphone, now with a waterproof body and USB Type-C
February 7, 2017 / 2
Samsung Galaxy TabPro S - a tablet with the Windows-keyboard
The first Windows-tablet with the 12-inch display Super AMOLED
June 7, 2016 /
Keyboards for iOS
Ten iOS keyboards review
July 18, 2015 /
Samsung E1200 Mobile Phone Review
A cheap phone with a good screen
March 8, 2015 / 4
Creative Sound Blaster Z sound card review
Good sound for those who are not satisfied with the onboard solution
September 25, 2014 / 2
Samsung Galaxy Gear: Smartwatch at High Price
The first smartwatch from Samsung - almost a smartphone with a small body
December 19, 2013 /

News Archive



Do you use microSD card with your phone?
or leave your own version in comments (16)